Space

Shift in US Executive Branch Priorities

The Trump administration has proposed budgets for space that aim to bolster human exploration to the Moon and Mars and which have imposed significant cuts to numerous ongoing and planned scientific missions related to interplanetary exploration, aviation, and space science. This has led to reductions in funding and personnel at NASA. These policies may put the United States at a competitive disadvantage relative to China and other global powers.

The Grand Challenge of Sustainability

The growing use of space to support sustainability and security on Earth will lead to more adverse impacts on the space environment. Even benign constellations of satellites, such as those used for remote sensing and object tracking, will contribute to greater space traffic challenges. New domestic and international policies are needed for tracking objects.

The number of active satellites rose from about 1,000 in 2014 to around 10,000 in 2024, and there are around 170 million total pieces of debris larger than one millimeter in size in orbit. The risk of collision between these objects is growing. Such collisions can produce a cloud of debris that will remain in orbit (a phenomenon known as the Kessler syndrome) and potentially close off access to space.

Space Governance

The release of NASA’s strategy for sustainability in space activities in Earth orbit and the issuing of the first-ever fine by the Federal Communications Commission for improper satellite disposal from geostationary orbit are notable developments in space governance, but short-term policy advances must be unified with a longer-term vision to address the responsible use of space. The Artemis Accords, signed by fifty nations (but not Russia or China), provide principles for the peaceful use of lunar resources.

Geopolitics, Security, and Conflict in Space

Evidence suggests that international norms established in the Outer Space Treaty (OST) are eroding. In 2024, Russia vetoed a United Nations resolution to prohibit nuclear weapons in space (already prohibited by the OST, to which it is a signatory) and is suspected of developing a nuclear-armed satellite that would violate the treaty. Further, there are concerns that nations might disregard OST provisions prohibiting claims of lunar sovereignty.

Another issue relates to nonnuclear anti-satellite (ASAT) weaponry and capabilities. To date, four nations have tested weapons capable of destroying or interfering with satellites in space: China, Russia, India, and the United States. ASATs are a major concern, as tests or actual use of them threaten peaceful operation of satellites, space stations, and other space activities and increase the likelihood of the Kessler syndrome emerging.

Finally, the US government’s dependence on space capabilities provided by a very limited number of companies controlled by a single individual raises important policy questions of how to ensure that US space efforts align with US national interests.