One of the most important and unusual hallmarks of this moment is convergence: emerging technologies are intersecting and interacting in a host of ways, with important implications for policy. This chapter identifies themes and commonalities that cut across the ten technological areas discussed in the report, based in part on discussions with nearly one hundred Stanford University faculty across forty departments and institutes.
Takeaway
- Governance and Geopolitics of Emerging Technology: how governments and political systems shape global technological progress
- Innovation that emerges too fast threatens the legitimate interests of those who might be negatively affected; moving too slowly risks a nation losing first-mover advantages.
- National monopolies on technology are increasingly difficult to maintain.
- The US government is being displaced by the private sector as the main driver of technological innovation, raising questions of whether incentives within the private sector are aligned with those of the nation.
- Technological innovation occurs in both democracies and autocracies, but different regime types enjoy different advantages and challenges. Democracies provide greater freedom for explanation and benefit from the rule of law and a free flow of ideas and people. Authoritarian regimes can direct sustained funding to and maintain focus on key technologies, independent of short-term profit or political considerations.
- Innovation Pathways and Patterns of Progress: the diverse ways in which technological progress unfolds
- Technological progress is often nonlinear and unpredictable, with slow phases punctuated by breakthroughs.
- Non-scientific factors affect technology adoption beyond scientific proof.
- Hype can distort perceptions, leading to inflated expectations that outpace practical utility and distortions in resource allocation.
- Frontier bias causes overemphasis on new technologies and sometimes results in overlooking impactful uses of established ones.
- The synergies between different technologies are large and growing, which makes understanding the interactions between different fields even more important. Advances in one technology often support advances in other technologies.
- Human Capital and Knowledge Ecosystems: the critical roles of people, universities, and funding structures in driving and sustaining innovation
- Human capital is the most critical factor in ensuring long-term national competitiveness and scientific advancement. Talent—vital for discovery—cannot be produced at will; it must be nurtured domestically or attracted from abroad.
- Universities are central both to high-risk research and Science, Technology, Engineering and Math (STEM) education. Yet federal R&D funding as a share of GDP has declined and policy ambiguities hinder international collaboration.
- The “valley of death” is where promising innovations face challenges moving from research feasibility to commercial viability due to funding gaps and technical and scaling issues. This high-risk, high-uncertainty phase requires sustained investment and strategic support to turn breakthroughs into products.
- Infrastructure for Innovation: vital systems and structures that support innovation on a large scale.
- Standards enable interoperability, reduce costs, and enhance safety, all of which are important for scaling innovations from prototypes to global adoption. However, premature or competing standards can stifle innovation, lock in inferior technologies, fragment markets, and slow adoption. Standards can potentially be exploited for market or geopolitical control.
- Manufacturing is vital for economic resilience and security, especially amid global supply chain disruptions and strategic competition with China and other nations.
- Cybersecurity protects data, systems, and intellectual property from cyber threats. State and nonstate actors will continue to threaten the confidentiality, integrity, and availability of information crucial for emerging technology R&D.
SETR 2026: Crosscutting Themes & Commonalities by Hoover Institution